🤑 What carbon credits are and will corporations purchase? And why? 🤑

💥 CDR.fyi strikes again. This time they teamed up with Sylvera for the 2025 CDR Market Survey. While the focus remains on durable CDR, this partnership allowed the authors to include a wide range of insights from non-durable carbon markets.

What stood out to me:

🌲 Nature based removals have, are, and will continue to dominate demand. While most buyers are planning with a mixed portfolio, 35% plan to stick to NBS only even in 2050, which is in direct conflict with net-zero guidelines by SBTi and the like for like principle.

🙄 Avoidance and reduction credits seem here to stay, at least if buyers’ get their way. Only 35% of buyers plan to spend 100% of their carbon credit budget in 2050 on CDR, which means that 65% are planning to spend at least a share - potentially large - on avoidance/reduction credits.

🎯 Corporate net-zero standards have to move first, buyers will follow. By far the most important factor cited by buyers are increasing their motivation to buy are clear CDR targets from SBTi, ISO, etc. (65%). Followed by clear business benefits / RoI (62%).

📉 Costs are projected to go down considerably for durable CDR (except BCR). It remains the most important factor for buyers in choosing a supplier (77%). The next wave of buyers will be more cost sensitive. Cost savings in the next 5 years will be higher than in the two following decades.

🔨 My personal conclusion from all of this: compliance is the only way. If we leave it purely to voluntary net-zero strategies, corporates will largely continue to optimise for price, ending up with a portfolio that will not enable net-zero.

🧐 What is your take? Are lower future prices enough to move the needle?

👀 Check out the full report here: https://lnkd.in/dWiF_hcX

👏 Congrats to the CDR.fyi for this great survey and analysis Alexander Rink, Tank Chen, Matt S., Ekaterina Larina, Ph.D. and Shona Crawford-Smith from Sylvera.

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